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第25章



                                    实际上笔者对此比例抱有很大的怀疑。2000年穆迪投资有一份刊物,批评用EBITDA作指标的不可靠性。因为有很多行业,像石油业、高科技业等,折旧及摊销是非常庞大的,需要大量资金来再重新投资新的科技或新的勘探工作,所以这个“现金流”不可视作股东投资的收入。石油的勘探可能是毫无结果,但其开支则是必然的,因此折旧不可视为公司赚钱能力的一部分。科技的投资与钻油的情况相似,投资未必有丰厚的结果。

        笔者稍后剖析华能国电时,会用这个比例,来衡量华能2004年收购5家发电厂的收购价是否合理。这个指标最适合应用于运作较稳定的行业如发电,其设施寿命相对较长,可以维持15-20年以上,当除税、利息、折旧及摊销前收入(即是毛利)能够在短时间内抵消收购价的话,电厂余下的运作时间便变成无本生利,提高投资吸引力。

        第三部分分析公司的工具(3)

        (八)现金流折现法

        现金流折现法(Discounted  Cash  Flow)是投资最常用的工具之一。例如一个地产发展项目,需时多年才能完成,唯一的方法要假设楼宇建筑期需要的建筑费、利息开支作为成本之一,然后在若干年后,卖出时所得回来的销售额,减去这些成本及要支付的税项,将溢利以折现率,折现成为现时的价值。例如一个地产项目需时5年才能完成,卖出后扣除建筑成本、利息开支及税项后,连地价的现金流为1亿元,以5%的折现率计算,这5年后的1亿元相等现时的7,835万元。计算方法相当简单,将1亿元乘以表23中的5%、5年的系数0.783526。在其他行业分析我们也可以用现金流折现法,尤其是作长远投资的时候。

        表23:现金流折现系数一览表

        年份/        4%                5%                  6%                7%                  8%                  9%                  10%

        折现率

        1          0.961538      0.952381      0.943396      0.934579      0.925926      0.917431      0.909091

        2          0.924556      0.907029      0.889996      0.873439      0.857339      0.84168        0.826446

        3          0.888996      0.863838      0.839619      0.816298      0.793832      0.772183      0.751315

        4          0.854804      0.822702      0.792094      0.762895      0.73503        0.708425      0.683013

        5          0.821927      0.783526      0.747258      0.712986      0.680583      0.649931      0.620921

        6          0.790315      0.746215      0.704961      0.666342      0.63017        0.596267      0.564474

        7          0.759918      0.710681      0.665057      0.62275        0.58349        0.547034      0.513158

        8          0.73069        0.676839      0.627412      0.582009      0.540269      0.501866      0.466507

        9          0.702587      0.644609      0.591898      0.543934      0.500249      0.460428      0.424098

        10        0.675564      0.613913      0.558395      0.508349      0.463193      0.422411      0.385543

        11        0.649581      0.584679      0.526788      0.475093      0.428883      0.387533      0.350494

        12        0.624597      0.556837      0.496969      0.444012      0.397114      0.355535      0.318631

        13        0.600574      0.530321      0.468839      0.414964      0.367698      0.326179      0.289664

        14        0.577475      0.505068      0.442301      0.387817      0.340461      0.299246      0.263331

        15        0.555265      0.481017      0.417265      0.362446      0.315242      0.274538      0.239392

        16        0.533908      0.458112      0.393646      0.338735      0.29189        0.25187        0.217629

        17        0.513373      0.436297      0.371364      0.316574      0.270269      0.231073      0.197845

        18        0.493628      0.415521      0.350344      0.295864      0.250249      0.211994      0.179859

        19        0.474642      0.395734      0.330513      0.276508      0.231712      0.19449        0.163508

        20        0.456387      0.376889      0.311805      0.258419      0.214548      0.178431      0.148644

        21        0.438834      0.358942      0.294155      0.241513      0.198656      0.163698      0.135131

        22        0.421955      0.34185        0.277505      0.225713      0.183941      0.150182      0.122846

        23        0.405726      0.325571      0.261797      0.210947      0.170315      0.137781      0.111678

        24        0.390121      0.310068      0.246979      0.197147      0.157699      0.126405      0.101526

        25        0.375117      0.295303      0.232999      0.184249      0.146018      0.115968      0.092296

        26        0.360689      0.281241      0.21981        0.172195      0.135202      0.106393      0.083905

        27        0.346817      0.267848      0.207368      0.16093        0.125187      0.097608      0.076278

        28        0.333477      0.255094      0.19563        0.150402      0.115914      0.089548      0.069343

        29        0.320651      0.242946      0.184557      0.140563      0.107328      0.082155      0.063039

        30        0.308319      0.231377      0.17411        0.131367      0.099377      0.075371      0.057309

        第四部分如何分析电力行业

        笔者曾经是香港注册的投资顾问,现已退休。